Scenario 1: a strong period (vault +0.4%)
The vault earned ~23% annualized; Alpha’s net slice annualizes near 78% because the residual lands on one-fifth of the capital. This is the amplification working as designed.
Scenario 2: a weak period (vault +0.1%)
The vault was profitable, but not enough to cover Stable’s full target. Stable takes everything earned; Alpha earns nothing despite a positive period, an expected and normal outcome, not a failure state. Stable’s 232 HONEY shortfall is forfeited, not carried forward: its realized yield for this stretch is below the 8% target, permanently.
Scenario 3: a losing period (vault −2%)
A 2% vault drawdown becomes a 10% Alpha drawdown — the same 5x that amplifies Alpha’s upside magnifies its losses. Stable is untouched because the loss is inside the 20% coverage. Note also: Stable earned nothing this period (no profit, no accrual), and Alpha’s high-water mark now sits above its value, Alpha pays no performance fee until it recovers past it.